By analyzing unit sales over four key categories—eye exams, contact lenses, ophthalmic lenses, and frames—across the most recent nine quarters (Q3 2022 through Q3 2024), we developed a forecast for the next five quarters (Q4 2024 through Q4 2025). Data was sourced from a representative sample of 2,250 ECP locations within the GPN dataset, comparing year-over-year percentage changes in unit sales for each quarter. Using exponential smoothing, a time-series forecasting method, we estimated future trends based on historical data.
Category-Specific Trends
• Exams: Exhibit volatility, with growth reaching 1.17% in Q1 2025 but dropping to -2.99% by Q4 2025. The average forecasted change is -0.80%.
• Frames: Forecast remains relatively flat, with minimal fluctuations, averaging -1.29% through the set period.
• Spectacle Lenses: The most stable category, showing slight positive growth in some quarters but overall an average change of -0.55%, indicating stability.
• Contact Lenses: A steady decline, with a forecasted average drop of -4.59% and a significant decrease of -3.03% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025.
General Outlook
The forecast suggests a challenging outlook, especially for contact lenses and frames, which consistently show negative growth. While eye exams hold potential for growth, they face volatility. Lenses show the most stability.
It’s important to note that these forecasts are based solely on historical data from the past nine quarters, using a time-series forecasting model to identify patterns and seasonal trends. The forecast includes a 75% confidence interval, meaning actual future values are expected to fall within the predicted range 75% of the time. However, external factors—such as economic shifts, weather conditions, or unforeseen events—are not accounted for and could significantly impact actual outcomes. Therefore, practices must remain flexible and ready to adapt as conditions evolve, ensuring they make informed and responsive decisions.
—RON KREFMAN, O.D.
Practice Resources
The GPN Visions business solutions channel (visions.gatewaypn.com) offers timely webinars and resources to ECPs. The open-forum webinars feature some of the industry’s most successful O.D.s, practice management consultants, and business owners. GPN Visions members are invited to attend live webinars, view recorded presentations, download useful tools, and participate in live Q&A sessions with industry pros.
