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US Port Imports Set to Decline After August, says NRF

Early peak shipping season expected to wind down as import volumes remain elevated.

Eyecare Business August 11, 2026

Import cargo volumes at the nation's major container ports are expected to remain elevated through August before declining for the remainder of 2026, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The report attributes this year's earlier-than-usual peak shipping season to retailers accelerating imports ahead of late-July tariff changes and responding to ongoing supply chain disruptions, including those related to the conflict in Iran.

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold expects retailers to be well stocked for the coming holiday season, despite changes in tariff policy. Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs expired on July 23 and were replaced the following day by new Section 301 tariffs regarding forced labor that range from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies. These tariffs affect 99% of US imports.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a press release that consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

United States ports tracked by the report handled 2.23 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in June, which is up 13.2% from a year earlier but down 0.7% from May. Total import volume for the first half of 2026 reached 12.7 million TEU—a 1.1% increase over the same period in 2025. July imports are projected at 2.21 million TEU; down 7.6% year over year, while August is forecasted at 2.22 million TEU (down 4.2%).

Imports are expected to decline gradually through the remainder of the year: September is forecasted at 2.16 million TEU, October at 2.13 million TEU, November at 2.03 million TEU, and December at 2.06 million TEU (up 2.8%, 2.7%, 0.3%, and 2.5% year over year, respectively). Despite the seasonal slowdown, each of those monthly totals is projected to exceed 2025 levels.

The report indicates that May was the busiest shipping month of 2026 at 2.24 million TEU and reflects an earlier and more evenly distributed peak season than has historically been typical. Full-year import volume is forecasted to total 25.5 million TEU; a slight increase of 0.1% over 2025, but down 0.3% from 2024.