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NRF Reports Strong Import Volumes as Extended Peak Season Winds Down

Imports are forecasted to slow in Q1 2027.

Eyecare Business November 11, 2026

Import cargo volume at major US container ports is expected to decline through the remainder of 2026 following an extended peak shipping season, according to the November 9 Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

US ports covered by the report handled 2.37 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded imports in September, which was a 3.4% increase from August and a 12.6% increase year over year. That makes September the busiest month of 2026 and the third-busiest month since Global Port Tracker began tracking imports.

The report attributes the prolonged peak season partly to tariff-related changes in shipping patterns. According to Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett in a press release, new tariffs introduced during the second quarter prompted a surge in imports beginning in May that continued through mid-October.

Global Port Tracker projects the following import volumes for the remainder of 2026:

  • October: 2.26 million TEU, up 9.1% year over year.

  • November: 2.05 million TEU, up 1.2% year over year.

  • December: 2.03 million TEU, up 1.3% year over year.

For the full year, imports are projected to reach 26 million TEU, a 2% increase from 25.4 million TEU in 2025.

The report also forecasts a further slowdown in early 2027: January imports are currently projected at 2.04 million TEU, down 3% year over year; February at 1.89 million TEU, down 0.5%; and March at 1.92 million TEU, down 11.2%.

Despite strong import volumes, NRF reported congestion at some ports, particularly on the West Coast, where cargo has experienced extended delays awaiting rail transportation. Labor negotiations at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have also created uncertainty. A potential strike was avoided when International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26 reached a short-term contract extension with the Pacific Maritime Association. The agreement has been extended several times, most recently through November 20, without a long-term contract in place.

“Most holiday merchandise is already here, and retailers are working closely with their supply chain partners to ensure that the supply of holiday gifts continues to flow smoothly,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in the press release.