Whether Weather MATTERS

Can weather intelligence help your business?

By Erinn Morgan

Are your customers' shopping habits affected by the weather? If you think that not rain, sleet, nor snow can put off your patients from buying eyewear, you might want to think again.

"Shoppers simply react to weather," says Scott Bernhardt, chief operating officer of Planalytics, a firm that helps retailers, manufacturers, and suppliers manage the impacts of weather on their business. "We're all human and we're all affected by these external changes."

Different weather attitudes across the U.S. can make a world of difference to retailers. "A half inch of snow in Dallas shuts the place down," says Bernhardt, "but you get a half inch in Albany, nobody blinks an eye."

Companies such as Planalytics pinpoint how changes in weather-driven demand can be applied to planning inventory and marketing activities. Armed with this forecasted information, retailers can maximize their sales opportunities while also reducing inventory costs and markdowns.

How does this relate to eyewear? Certainly, your business's traffic can be greatly affected by the weather, especially if the outlook is rainy, snowy, icy, or unseasonably cold. When it comes to sunwear, the consistent emergence of the sun itself (particularly in spring and summer) can be the greatest indicator of how and when sales will take place. For example, if you have an ample supply of sunwear in stock when your winter turns to a sunny spring, you can capitalize on potential sales.

FORECASTING THE SHOPPER

Predicting the ways the shoppers react to weather involves quite a bit of number crunching. "From years of gathering data, we have been able to construct indices that allow us to see how shoppers in every zip code shop in various weather situations every day of the year," says Planalytics' Bernhardt.

Based on a matrix of short-term and long-term weather forecasts, the business weather specialists try to determine the statistical likelihood of particular weather patterns repeating in that market, and what consumers will do about it.

"We could predict, for example, that people in Atlanta will buy fleece when the temperatures hits 63°," he says. "We know how the Atlanta shopper shops, how the Seattle shopper shops, and so on."

Bernhardt notes that it only takes very small movements, even of one degree, to make shoppers really react.

DEGREES FOR DOLLARS

As might be expected, consumers tend to shop more when the weather is more agreeable. But the precision of the impact of small weather changes on consumers may be surprising. Here are some general rules of thumb:

■ Warm and dry drives sales. Same store sales research for the past 24 years shows that there's a sales boost of 1.8 percent in a warm, dry May compared to a cold, wet May, according to Weather Trends International.

■ Every degree counts. Marketresearch.com's Storm Exchange Retail Weather Outlook found that for every 1°F the temperature drops in September and October, specialty apparel and department same-store sales will likely increase one to two percent as shoppers prepare for the pending cooler weather.

■ Sunwear sales spike when it turns mild. "Last year, the East Coast had a late-breaking spring, so not as many people bought sun items like sunglasses," Bernhardt says.

A specific example is Richmond, Va., which Bernhardt says showed a couple of sunwear sales opportunity periods. But, he says, "Sales showed a real spike when the weather finally did get nice way after Easter," he notes. Likewise, in Texas, a late-breaking spring season also finally gave way to stellar sunglass sales.

SALES CHASERS

When it comes to eyewear retailing, prescription eyewear sales may well be affected by traffic-limiting weather. If you are on a street location, walk-in traffic can also be hindered by everything from hail to high winds. Some guidelines to keep in mind:

■ Wet and cold dampens sales. A report by Weather Trends International comparing March 2008 to March 2007 revealed the second worst retail sales in 23 years. The culprit? It was the coldest March in six years, the wettest in 10 years, and the snowiest in 12 years.

■ Precipitation is the problem. According to ICSC Research, shoppers are generally more concerned about rain and snow than cold or hot temperatures. Also, they tend to spend more when weather is "gunusually mild," according to research done by the United States Department of Commerce.

MAKING IT WORK

Eyecare professionals can boost their business with proper planning: Look at weather almanacs for long-term predictions to plan assortments as well as short-term weather forecasts to plan day-to-day operations.

One planning point to keep in mind: A survey by ICSC Research found that 75 percent of households think retailers stock shelves too early and then don't have the products when consumers actually want them.

Notes Bernhardt: "When the weather says it's time to pick up a new pair of sunglasses, you want that product out in front; you want to tout it or even advertise it locally." EB