nailed it!

Wave goodbye to other economic indicators. Nail polish sales reveal a new flair for affordable style that makes a chic statement

By Amy Spiezio

Can you judge the state of the economy by the sale of cosmetics? In the last economic downturn, The Lipstick Effect was cited by Leonard Lauder in a 2001 Wall Street Journal article, “Rising Lipstick Sales May Mean Pouting Economy” by Emily Nelson. “When lipstick sales go up, people don’t want to buy dresses,” said the chairman of Estee Lauder.

But if one thing is true of the current economic state, it’s that it is different than any other downturn—and that includes the sale of lipstick. This time around, the canary in the mineshaft is actually nail polish. Lauder himself passed the crown from lipstick to nail polish in a recent Time Magazine article, saying, “Nail polish has become the heir to lipstick in the recession.”

According to beauty market research conducted by The NPD Group, Inc., a leading market research company, during the first 10 months of 2011, (January to October), total prestige makeup dollar sales in U.S. department stores were $2.8 billion, and dollar growth for Total Nail, up 59 percent; “The Nail segment was a winner all around, showing 50+ dollar increases for both nail enamel and top/base coats,” the group reports.

“In makeup, while neutral tones and face products led in the past, across countries we see strong gains in color categories of lip and nail color and a new focus on eye shadow and eye definition with growth in eye pencil and brow products,” notes Karen Grant, vice president and senior global industry analyst, The NPD Group, Inc., in a recent report on cosmetic sales.

Whether it’s the good impression job seekers make with a set of well-manicured nails, the DIY possibilities for budget-conscious consumers, or an irresistible desire for a taste of whimsy and luxury in a financially conservative market, nails are helping to drive today’s styles.

Savvy ECPs can tap into the nail market for trend information and insight into the fashions that will continue to drive the market into spring.

TRENDS FROM FASHION WEEK

■ New nudes. The flesh tones from last year have been updated with whiter shades or exact match-to-skin shades.
■ Pop art. Hot color remains active despite calls from some quarters for its outster. The light stays on as an accessory pop of hot yellow, orange, or pink will remain in play through the year.
■ Color blends. From contrasting French manicures to ombre looks, colors seep and gradually mix across surfaces for a chic rainbow.
■ Translucence. In nails, clear acrylics are in play as colored nailbeds give way to see-through tips for a glassy effect.
■ Pattern play. Stripes, checks, flowers, and fun motifs popped up on runways, showing a cheekier side to the business of fashion. FB