American DEMOGRAPHICS 2013

A look by region at the current state of optical in particular and business overall

Welcome to the fifth annual Eyecare Business report on business and the economy, with in-depth looks at the country’s four Census Bureau regions, bringing you a blend of optical and general retail and economic trends.

THE ECONOMY: How’s the economy? The answer is, literally, all over the map. Unlike most years, where most analysts are on the same page, or at least in the same chapter, this year we see experts pointing in different directions.

While most numbers show a gradual economic recovery continuing through 2016—albeit with certain regions and categories faring better than others—a few economic analysts predict a mild downshift in 2014, thanks to Obamacare and Dodd-Frank.

Here are some of the national trends from national and regional perspectives.

RETAIL: “We have seen a run of resilient economic data,” reports Jack Kleinhenz, PhD, chief economist at the National Retail Federation. “I still remain cautious about the second quarter, but bullish headlines, as stock and home prices have elevated, are suggesting accelerated growth later in 2013.”

■ CONSUMERS: On the heels of rising housing prices and increased confidence about the domestic business climate, confidence in the economy rose in May to a five-year high, according to The Conference Board, a New York research group. However, adds NRF’s Kleinhenz, “We still have not yet seen enough strength in the overall economy to ignite stronger employment and income growth.”

■ SPENDING: “A lot has to do with the recession and the fact that people lost jobs. So, spending is coming back slowly, but a lot of people have big debt,” explains Ryan Severino, senior economist, REIS (Real Estate Information Service, Inc.).

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: Vacancy rates are coming down and rents are starting to grow, but at a moderate pace,” explains REIS’ Severino. “Rents are growing nationally, to about a little over $19 per square foot. Over the next two years, we’ll see some improvement, but only marginal increase in asking rents—one or two percent. It starts to look better in 2016.”

FASHION: Roseanne Morrison, fashion director at The Doneger Group in New York, sees fewer and fewer regional differences. “It’s really coming together more,” she says. Among key trends in fashion, says Morrison, are suited looks and a strong military influence—though that influence is one that is being interpreted differently in various regions. In ready to wear, adds Morrison, “the biggest influence is the athletic lifestyle.”

FRAMES: Materials are still the story of the day for eyewear, with plastics continuing their juggernaut to the top of the option list, leaving metals far behind. New to the survey this year, metal-and-plastic combination frames make their debut with a solid showing that equals metal in the South.

SPECIALTY EYEWEAR: Kids’ eyewear realized sizable growth in the South and West, with the other regions holding steady. Sports eyewear saw weakening across all regions, while computer eyewear remained strong, staying steady across the nation and experiencing a sizable jump (15 percent) in the Midwest.

LENSES: Free-form/digitally produced lenses continue to be a growth category, comprising slightly more than one third of the nation’s lens sales (35 percent). Polycarbonate continues to be the most-used premium material, with Trivex and 1.67 on the rise. AR is still the most-sold lens extra.

IN-HOUSE LABS: Fewer ECPs are doing in-house finishing work this year, with just 44 percent of survey respondents reporting they have a lab. That’s down from 47 percent a year ago. However, 36 percent said they’re going to start within the next year. Surfacing and casting in-house didn’t fare as well, with 14 percent of respondents currently surfacing or casting in house, three percent planning to start in the next year, and six percent in the next three years.