Dec. 16, 2020 — The National Retail Federation (NRF) has shared that November retail sales dipped from October, but still showed consecutive monthly year-over-year gain by government calculations, resulting in a healthy kickoff for the holiday shopping season. 

"Consumers held back on spending in November as virus rates spiked, states imposed retail restrictions, and congressional stimulus discussions were gridlocked," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "While consumers have been bolstered by increases in disposable income and savings, it’s clear that additional fiscal stimulus from Congress is needed and we are hopeful it will be passed soon as we enter the final stretch of the holiday season. With retail sales up 8.8% versus November 2019, we still expect a strong holiday season compared with last year."

"The month-over-month decline isn’t surprising because some spending was pulled forward into October by campaigns encouraging consumers to shop early and shop safe," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz says. "Despite that, as we go into the final weeks of 2020, year-over-year trends show spending is holding up well regardless of month-to-month fluctuations. Nonetheless, we have to remember the remainder of the holiday season depends critically on the virus. We are optimistic, but spending could shift into a lower gear if the virus continues to spread."

The U.S. Census Bureau shared that overall retail sales in November were down 1.1% seasonally adjusted from October but up 4.1% year-over-year. This compares with a monthly drop of 0.1% but a yearly gain of 5.5% in October.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales (excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants) showed November was down 0.3% seasonally adjusted from October but up 8.8% unadjusted year-over-year. That compared with a decrease of 0.1% month-over-month and an increase of 10.5% year-over-year in October. NRF’s numbers were up 10.8% unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average.

As NRF shares, monthly numbers fluctuate—even when adjusted for seasonal variations. The result is that year-over-year comparisons are better indications of long-term trends. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales have increased each month since May under NRF’s calculation and since June under the Census Bureau calculation. Retail sales during the first 11 months of 2020 were up 6.6%, based on NRF’s calculation.

As previously shared to #EBNews, the NRF forecasted that holiday sales during November and December will increase between 3.6 and 5.2% over 2019 to a total between $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and the organization’s research revealed that 42% of consumers starting holiday shopping sooner in 2020. According to the NRF, consumers had about half their holiday shopping left to do as of Thanksgiving weekend, on average.

November saw year-over-year gains in 7 out of 9 retail categories, led by double-digit increases for online sales, building materials, and sporting goods stores, shares the NRF, below:

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 8.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were up 1.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 17.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Online and other non-store sales were up 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 30% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods stores were down 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 14% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Health and personal care stores were down 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 2.6% unadjusted year-over-year.
• General merchandise stores were down 1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 1% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.1%  month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 0.4% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 3.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 9.9% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 6.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 19.2% unadjusted year-over-year.

For more holiday retail information from the NRF: nrf.com/insights/holiday-and-seasonal-trends/winter-holidays.