March 27, 2024 — The National Retail Federation (NRF) has announced its forecast for 2024 during its fourth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual discussion. The organization shared that it expects retail sales to increase by 2.5% and 3.5%, of $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion, in 2024.

NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay attributes the expected growth to the “resiliency of consumers” and the ability of retailers to offer products and services with prices consumers “want to pay.” According to NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, the biggest question for 2024 is whether consumer spending can maintain its resilience.

This year’s forecast compares to the 3.6% annual sales growth of $5.1 trillion in 2023 and is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6%. Online sales are expected to grow between 7% and 9%, or $1.47 trillion to $1.50 trillion, year over year, following 2023’s increase of $1.38 trillion.

The NRF predicts full-year GDP growth of 2.3%—slower than the 2.5% seen in 2023 but strong enough to sustain job growth, the NRF shares. Additionally, inflation prices are expected to moderate to 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, NRF shares. With the economy’s slowed pace, NRF expects about 100,000 fewer jobs on average per month compared to 2023 with the unemployment rate averaging at 4% for the year.

Despite many consumers feeling pressure from tighter credit and inflation, several surveys indicate a favorable outlook from consumers that supports their willingness to spend.

To focus on core detail, NRF’s calculation of retail sales excuses auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. The NRF shares that its 2024 retail sales forecast is based on economic modeling that considers indicators like employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales, and weather.