Oct. 18, 2024 — The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecasted that winter holiday spending in 2024 will increase between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to last year, reaching between $979.5 billion and $989 billion for November and December. This is an increase from the $955.6 billion spent during the same period in 2023.

The holiday spending forecast aligns with NRF's broader projection for 2024 retail sales, which is also expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to the previous year.

Online and other non-store sales are expected to grow by 8% to 9%, reaching between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. This is up from $273.3 billion in 2023, although the increase is slightly lower than last year's 10.7% growth over 2022.

“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.” 

The NRF estimates that retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers for the holiday period, slightly fewer than the 509,000 hired last year. Some of these hires may have already been made in October to support early holiday sales events.

The shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be shorter this year at 26 days, six fewer than last year. Other factors, such as the economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, may also affect spending. Although the 2024 U.S. presidential election occurs during the holiday season, the NRF notes its effect on retail sales is uncertain.

The NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using indicators such as consumer spending, disposable income, employment, wages, and inflation. The calculations exclude sales from auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail sectors. The NRF defines the holiday season as running from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.