Oct. 24, 2024 — Retail sales in the U.S. rose in September, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, signaling continued consumer spending strength amid growth in employment and easing inflation and interest rates.

“September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs,” says National Retail Federation (NRF) chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”

The report showed that overall retail sales increased 0.4% seasonally adjusted compared to last month and were up 1.7% unadjusted year over year. This follows August’s gains of 0.1% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year.

The NRF’s own analysis of core retail sales—which excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants—showed a 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted increase for September and a 2.4% unadjusted year-over-year rise. Core retail sales for the first nine months of the year were up 3.3% compared to the same period last year, aligning with NRF’s forecast of a 2.5% to 3.5% growth in retail sales for 2024. NRF also projects a similar growth range for holiday sales this year.

Meanwhile, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which uses real-time credit and debit card transaction data from Affinity Solutions, reported a slight decline of 0.28% in core retail sales seasonally adjusted month-over-month in September but a 0.94% year-over-year increase. This followed August’s modest gains of 0.17% month-over-month and 1.93% year-over-year.