Dec. 19, 2024 — Retail sales in November saw a solid increase as the holiday shopping season began, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The report showed a 0.7% seasonally adjusted month-over-month rise in retail sales and a 3.8% unadjusted year-over-year increase, marking a continuation of growth observed in October.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) highlighted that consumer spending remained robust, supported by steady job and wage growth, manageable inflation, and strong household balance sheets. “This growth comes even though the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest shopping portion of the holiday season and pushed Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday sales into December,” says Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist. “The season’s pace of spending is clearly on track to reach our forecast.”

NRF’s calculation of core retail sales—which exclude auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants—increased 0.4% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 3.8% year over year, unadjusted. These figures align with NRF's forecast of a 2.5% to 3.5% increase in holiday sales compared to 2023, the organization shares.

Holiday spending, defined by NRF as occurring between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, appears to be on track to meet projections. Nearly half (45%) of consumers began their holiday shopping before November, with 58% having started early in the month.

Cumulatively, core retail sales for the first 11 months of the year were up 3.5% compared to the same period in 2023, consistent with NRF’s full-year growth forecast.

Meanwhile, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which uses anonymized credit and debit card data from Affinity Solutions, reported a slight month-over-month decline of 0.19% in November’s core retail sales following October's strong performance. However, year-over-year sales were up 1.43% for November, building on October’s 4.59% year-over-year increase.