Dec. 12, 2024 — The nation’s major container ports are bracing for a possible surge in imports through next spring as labor disputes and looming tariff policies create uncertainty for retailers and the broader economy, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers, and the nation’s economy.”

Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance have stalled, raising the risk of a strike when the current contract extension expires on Jan. 15. Talks broke down following an October strike and disagreements over automation, a key sticking point in labor discussions.

Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump has signaled plans to raise tariffs on various goods after his inauguration on Jan. 20. Retailers are responding by frontloading shipments in an effort to avoid potential disruptions and increased costs, according to the Global Port Tracker.

Ports tracked by the report handled 2.25 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, a 9.3% increase compared to the previous year. November and December are expected to see year-over-year growth of 14.4% and 14.3%, respectively. Forecasts for early 2025 show continued high volumes, with January projected at 2.2 million TEUs, a 12% increase from the previous year.

Despite the import surge, February volumes are expected to dip 4.1% due to Lunar New Year shutdowns in Asia, before rebounding in March and April.