U.S. import cargo at major container ports is projected to decline year-over-year for the first time in more than 18 months, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “The results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.”
A series of tariffs announced earlier this year included a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, reciprocal tariffs on multiple nations, and a 145% tariff on goods from China.
Import volumes are forecast to decline significantly from May through the fall. May is projected at 1.81 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), a 12.9% decrease compared to the same month last year. June is expected to fall to 1.71 million TEU, a 20.2% year-over-year drop and the lowest volume since March 2023. July, August, and September are forecast at 1.77 million TEU (-23.4%), 1.82 million TEU (-21.5%), and 1.79 million TEU (-21.2%), respectively.
These figures mark a sharp contrast from earlier forecasts made before the latest tariff announcements. At that time, April through July were expected to remain steady or show modest year-over-year increases. The revised outlook suggests that the first half of 2025 will total 12.13 million TEU, representing a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the same period in 2024. This is notably lower than the previous forecast of 12.78 million TEU, which would have marked a 5.7% annual increase.
Despite the downturn, trade activity has not come to a halt. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that although some container carriers are consolidating cargo and adjusting schedules, reports of widespread disruptions, such as empty terminals or canceled voyages, are overstated.
According to the report, U.S. ports handled 2.15 million TEU in March 2025, up 5.5% from February and 11.3% from March 2024. April figures have not yet been finalized, but volume is projected at 2.2 million TEU, a 9.1% increase from the previous year.
In 2024, total imports reached 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023, driven by early shipping ahead of labor negotiations at East and Gulf Coast ports and potential changes in trade policy following the November elections. That volume marked the highest annual import level since the 2021 record of 25.8 million TEU.