Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to recover in July following a sharp decline in late spring, but are forecast to drop again later in the year as previously delayed tariffs come into effect, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The report shows that U.S. ports handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in May, marking an 11.8% decrease from April and a 6.4% drop year over year. It was the first annual decline since September 2023 and the lowest monthly volume recorded since May 2024.

June figures have not yet been finalized, but the report projects container imports at 2.06 million TEU, representing a 5.9% increase from May but still 3.7% lower than the same month last year. July is forecast to see a further improvement to 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1% year over year.

Import volumes are expected to fall beginning in August as new tariffs take effect, with projections of 2.08 million TEU for the month, down 10.4% year over year. September imports are forecast to decline 19.9%, followed by a 19.2% drop in October and a 21.3% decrease in November, which would mark the lowest monthly total since April 2023.

The year-over-year comparisons are partly influenced by elevated import volumes during late 2024, when businesses accelerated shipments to avoid potential disruptions from labor disputes at East and Gulf Coast ports, NRF shares.

The report comes amid continued trade policy developments, including an executive order signed this week delaying the implementation of “reciprocal” tariffs until Aug. 1. The administration also announced new tariffs of up to 40% on goods from more than a dozen countries, contributing to ongoing supply chain uncertainty.

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect. Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs.”

The current forecast anticipates total import volumes for the first half of 2025 to reach 12.63 million TEU, a 4.5% increase from the same period in 2024 but still below projections made earlier this year prior to new tariff announcements in April.