U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, according to forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF), which projects November–December sales will grow between 3.7% and 4.2%, or $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, over 2024. Last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.

The spending outlook comes as NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics report a record 186.9 million people plan to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, surpassing last year’s high of 183.4 million.

Black Friday remains the most popular day to shop, with 130.4 million people (70%) expected to participate, followed by Cyber Monday with 73.9 million shoppers (40%). Among the 67 million planning to shop on Saturday, 80% say they will support local businesses as part of Small Business Saturday.

NRF’s Thanksgiving weekend survey found that 58% of consumers had already begun holiday shopping by early November, consistent with recent years. Shoppers reported completing about 26% of their planned purchases. The top intended gift categories include clothing and accessories (50%), gift cards (43%), and toys (32%). Gift card spending alone is projected to reach $29.1 billion, up slightly from 2024.

Debit cards remain the most commonly used payment method (44%), followed by credit cards (37%) and cash (16%). Digital wallets and apps are expected to be used by 59% of consumers. Two-thirds of shoppers (67%) say they plan to participate in at least one charitable activity this season.

NRF expects retailers to hire 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers, down from 442,000 in 2024, noting that some hiring may have been pulled forward due to October promotional events. The organization also cited factors such as inflation, tariff-related price increases, and the recent federal government shutdown as potential headwinds for consumer demand.