Retail sales in the U.S. increased in March following two consecutive monthly declines, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions and released by the National Retail Federation (NRF). However, the growth remained moderate as consumers appeared to remain cautious in response to ongoing tariff developments.

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February and increased 4.75% unadjusted compared to March 2024. This follows a 0.22% month-over-month decline and a 3.38% year-over-year gain in February.

Core retail sales—excluding restaurants, auto sales, and gas stations—were up 0.4% month over month in March and rose 5.07% from the same period a year earlier. In comparison, February saw a 0.22% decline month over month and a 4.11% year-over-year increase.

Over the first quarter of 2025, total retail sales grew 4.52% year over year, while core retail sales climbed 4.96%.

According to the NRF, the March data captures spending trends that occurred after tariffs were announced in February but prior to additional measures introduced by the White House in early April. President Donald Trump announced a 10% minimum tariff on all U.S. trading partners on April 2, in addition to broader "reciprocal" tariffs affecting dozens of countries. Although those reciprocal tariffs are temporarily suspended, the escalation of tariffs—particularly with China—has contributed to market uncertainty.

The NRF cited consumer concerns about rising prices as a potential factor behind the March sales increase. A survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics in early March found that 46% of respondents reported stocking up on appliances, clothing, and other household items due to tariff-related price concerns.

Unlike traditional survey-based retail data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card transaction data from Affinity Solutions and is not subject to monthly or annual revisions.

The following are highlights from key sectors seasonally adjusted month over month and unadjusted year over year:

• Digital products were up 0.79% from last month and up 27.62% compared to last year.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.48% from last month and up 7.62% compared to last year.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music, and bookstores were unchanged from last month but up 6.63% compared to last year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.29% from last month but up 5.94% compared to last year.
• Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% from last month but up 5.39% compared to last year.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.65% from last month and up 3.05% compared to last year.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.76% from last month and up 2.37% compared to last year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% from last month and up 1.81% compared to last year.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% from last month but up 0.78% compared to last year.