Nov. 9, 2023 — The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects holiday spending to reach record levels in November and December, with a 3% to 4%, or $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, growth over 2022.
 
NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay says its unsurprising to see holiday sales returning to pre-pandemic levels as household finances remain in good shape. According to the NRF, this year’s holiday spending forecast is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019.
 
One of the biggest shifts in consumer behavior resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic is an increase in online shopping, with an expected 7% to 9% growth totaling between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion—up $255.8 billion from last year.
 
“Consumers remain in the driver’s seat, and are resilient despite headwinds of inflation, higher gas prices, stringent credit conditions, and elevated interest rates,” says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “We expect spending to continue through the end of the year on a range of items and experiences but at a slower pace. Solid job and wage growth will be contributing factors this holiday season, and consumers will be looking for deals and discounts to stretch their dollars.” Kleinhenz adds that service spending is back in line with pre-pandemic levels and growing faster than goods spending.
 
The NRF expects that retailers will hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers to meet the holiday season demand, a forecast that’s in line with the 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022.
 
The NRF holiday forecast is based on economic modeling that measures a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, and previous retail sales.