Import volume at major US container ports is projected to remain below 2025 levels through early fall, despite temporary year-over-year increases expected in May and June, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next 2 months, but that’s only because of the sharp falloff in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said retailers have remained cautious about increasing inventory levels amid uncertain economic conditions. “Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett said. “Stalling restocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”
According to the report, US ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.16 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in March, the most recent month with finalized data available. That figure was up 0.6% from the same month a year earlier and 13.6% higher than February levels, which were affected by Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia and weather-related cargo delays at some US ports.
April imports are estimated at 2.13 million TEU, representing a 3.6% year-over-year decline. Forecasts for the following months include 2.17 million TEU in May, up 11.1%; 2.13 million TEU in June, up 8.2%; 2.2 million TEU in July, down 7.8%; 2.19 million TEU in August, down 5.5%; and 2.08 million TEU in September, down 1.3%.
The report projects first-half 2026 imports to total 12.59 million TEU, up 0.5% from the same period in 2025, aided in part by the projected increases in May and June.
Total imports for 2025 reached 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.